UN Report Warns of Below-Normal Rainfall in KP, Punjab, AJK, and GB
Pakistan could face one of its coldest winters in decades due to the La Niña weather pattern, according to the latest situation report on monsoon floods by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG), released through the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA).
The report, prepared in collaboration with partner organisations, warns that La Niña conditions may cause below-normal temperatures across much of the country in the coming months.
La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean fall abnormally low, disrupting global weather systems and triggering extreme temperature changes.
According to the October forecast, both the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are expected to remain slightly negative, influencing rainfall patterns across Pakistan.
“Northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan are likely to receive below-normal rainfall, while southern regions including Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab may experience near-normal precipitation,” the report stated.
The report warned of several possible impacts: disruptions to Kharif crop harvesting due to sudden storms, increased dengue risks from stagnant water, potential glacial lake outburst floods in northern areas, reduced river inflows affecting irrigation, heightened smog and air pollution in the plains, and stress on livestock health and fodder supplies due to changing temperatures.
It also highlighted that Pakistan continues to face a worsening post-flood crisis, with weakened response capacity and rising risks to food security and public health.
The report pointed out a “decline in response capacity by both government and humanitarian partners,” noting that although an effective initial response was launched, many local and international agencies have since scaled back operations.
“Emergency stocks and initial funds have been exhausted, and humanitarian partners are now seeking new funding to sustain essential services during the transition from relief to early recovery,” it said.
A recent geo-spatial assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) revealed that floods submerged nearly 1.2 million hectares of land in Punjab, damaging major crops such as rice, cotton, and sugarcane. The flooding hit during the key period for Rabi crop planting, deepening the threat to food security and livelihoods.
“Flooded farmlands destroyed harvests, washed away livestock and fodder, and damaged machinery and agricultural tools — severely impacting livelihoods and delaying recovery for farming communities,” the report concluded.
