PATNA: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is facing a tough election battle in Bihar next month. Rising youth unemployment and growing public mistrust over voter lists are putting pressure on the coalition, which relies on regional allies to stay strong.
Bihar, one of India’s poorest yet most politically influential states, has over 130 million people. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar — known for switching sides between Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition — is now a key NDA ally.
The eastern state lies in India’s Hindi heartland, a crucial region for national politics. The results of Bihar’s assembly polls could influence upcoming elections in Assam, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.
Any split within the NDA in Bihar could weaken Modi’s national coalition, which currently controls 293 of the 543 seats in Parliament and has its strongest base in Assam.
Women Emerge as Key Voters in Tight Contest
A recent survey by the Vote Vibe agency showed the NDA holding a slim 1.6-point lead over the opposition alliance, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, as of October 8.
The poll credited the NDA’s narrow lead to welfare schemes, including cash transfers to 12.1 million women under a self-employment subsidy worth more than ₹121 billion ($1.37 billion).
In Bihar’s capital, Patna, activist Nivedita Jha said women voters are expected to play a decisive role. Many men migrate from Bihar to cities like Mumbai and New Delhi for work and are often unable to vote.
“Women make the decisions because the men are not here,” she said. “They talk about the opposition’s promise of more financial support, and many trust them more.”
Voter list errors have also caused anger. In Patna, 85-year-old Jitni Devi said she was wrongly removed from the voter list and declared dead, preventing her from voting or accessing her pension.
“They have declared me dead,” she told Reuters. “People tease me as a ghost, and even the bank refuses to give me my money.”
The Bihar Election Commission has not commented on Devi’s case, though the national election body says all such complaints are fully investigated.
Youth Frustration Over Jobs Shapes Campaign
Unemployment remains a major concern for young voters in Bihar despite official data showing improvement. Government figures show that 9.9% of people aged 15–29 were unemployed in 2023–24, down from 30.9% in 2018–19.
“For me, jobs are the main issue,” said 25-year-old first-time voter Babloo Kumar. “I’ve seen my father leave Bihar for work. I don’t want to do the same.”
Jan Suraaj, a new party founded by Modi’s former campaign strategist Prashant Kishor, is trying to change Bihar’s political conversation.
“Unemployment, migration, debt, and falling farm incomes are the real issues,” said Uday Singh, the party’s national president. “There’s a clear decline in Modi’s popularity here.”
The opposition has pledged a new law guaranteeing at least one government job per family if elected.
However, the BJP remains confident. “The NDA alliance is in a very strong position,” said BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash Paswan. “People still believe in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and vision.”
Voting for Bihar’s 243 assembly seats will take place on November 6 and 11, with results to be announced on November 14.
